Posts

Showing posts from 2017

2017 Returns

Thoughts on 2017, Part 2

Everyone is positive on 2018's returns

I looked around at other people's view of 2018. Most, if not all, feel that 2018 will be a positive year but the returns will not be as good as 2017's. 

I also feel that 2018 should be positive for stocks. But I am more cautious when everyone feels the same way. Usually when everyone feels the same way, things will turn out different.

Hedging against errors in viewpoint

It is possible that my views may turn out to be wrong. E.g. I did not expect 2017 to be a such a good year for stocks. Hence, one may need to hedge against the possibility of having wrong viewpoints. 

For investors, hedging against wrong viewpoints can be done by 
- having margin of safety in buying stocks 
- having fixed stock-bond/cash allocation 
- selling half of stocks when stock rise 100%.
- diversification i.e. having more stocks in your portfolio. 

Re-learning my selling rules

This year, I have not abidded my selling rules faithfully. When bad news hit a stock, I should h…

Thoughts on 2017

2016 was a good year for investing; ditto for 2017 2017 is better

Yes, 2017 is a better year than 2016. STI is up by more than 20%, while my stock portfolio returns is around 30%. As the year is coming to an end, the returns should be more or less as it is now. At this point last year, I was expecting higher interest rate which will affect the stock market. Well, my prediction was off

Stock-to-Cash Proportion -- around 60% stock: 40% cash

I manage to roughly keep to 60% stock for most of the year, after using some cash to buy stocks at the start of year. Currently, my stock allocation is lower than 60%. I aim to pull it up to 60%, even though the market is not cheap. This could be tough, as I may have some stocks to sell.

Banks -- I like

10% of my stock portfolio is in DBS. At the middle of the year, I was aiming to sell DBS at $25. Now, DBS has reached around $25 and I have trimmed the position a little only

I feel that DBS (and other Singapore banks) may have some way to run, if interest …

China Banks, Trimming down Position

Stock Idea: China Banks

I have been buying China banks like China Construction Bank and Bank of China recently. In the currently slightly expensive market, China banks still have low PE and low P/B, notwithstanding doubts on their credit quality. I may continue to accumulate if their share price drop.

Trimming down positions

I have also been trimming down my positions in Aug - Sep:
- Sold a portion of 800 Super. After the sale, 800 Super is around 2% of my portfolio. 800 Super will start to operate the WTE plant at end 2017. Will wait to see how much the plant will help the bottomline.

- Sold my entire position in Soilbuild Reit after it announced its lease issue with NK Chemical. Soilbuild Reit's position is not large, around 2% of my portfolio. The sale carries a small profit as I bought the Soilbuild Reit at $0.66.

- Sold half of my stake in Ping An and 1/4 of my stake in CM Bank. The money from the sale are used to buy the China Banks

- Sold a smallish position in Nordic. Can&#…

Sell Sell stocks in SG market

For the past month, I have been selling stocks in the Singapore market

- Sold my second half of OCBC stocks at $11.20. Still keeping DBS. I do not intend to sell any DBS, even though the market is pricing in DBS having higher provisions.

- Sold all my stake in Far East Hospitality. I don't like its latest quarter results.

 - Sold my remaining stake in Valuetronics, before it went ex-dividend. The price of Valuetronics may be higher now after including the dividends. But I decide to take profit as I no longer like the risk-reward in Valuetronics

- Sold my stake in Fraser Logistic Trust at $1.11. The price-to-book ratio for Fraser Logistic trust is more than 1.15, which is no longer attractive for me to hold. Of course, Fraser Logistic trust may still have room to run.

Personally, I am finding that Singapore market is getting fully valued and it is hard to find any interesting stocks to buy. Yes, there are low price-to-book property stocks in Singapore market, but property stocks ar…

Mid Year 2017

Stock Portfolio Returns 

Year-to-Date Portfolio Returns:20.7%
STI index excl dividends: 12%

Number of stocks in portfolio: 24

Stock Portfolio Rules

1) Keep number of stocks in portfolio to 20-25 stocks.

2) I can only buy the stock till it is 10% of my portfolio

3) No stock can be larger than 20% of my portfolio. If the stock rises to above 20% of my portfolio, I need to trim my position in the stock.

Thoughts on Portfolio

It is harder to find stocks to buy in Singapore market. I have been sellng more Singapore stocks than buying in the last two months.

Instead, it is easier to find stocks to buy in the HK market. I have been buying HK stocks instead in the last two months.

Some portfolio actions in last two months:
Singapore Stocks
- Sold 1/3 of my Dutech position, in veiw of the poorer than expected 1Q 2017 results. If Dutech dropped by 10%, I may add to my Dutech position

- Sold down 75% of my position in Valutronics before the bonus share issue. The bonus share is 1:10. Is leaning t…

Portfolio Returns