I find Legg Mason Q2 2008 letter very interesting, especially from the hindsight bias perspective.
Bill Miller has noted that many people has stated the obvious (i.e. he should have avoided housing stocks, financial stocks etc and he should have stocked up oil companies) from the events that have passed, but nobody is able to state what is obvious NOW. This implies that most (if not all) people suffers from hindsight bias. We emphasize/over-stress on what should have been.
You may also find the letter interesting too.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
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80% of CapitaLand China Trust debts are in SGD
Earlier, I noted that Chinese reits have debts in non-RMB ( link ). CapitaLand China Trust's borrowings are mostly in non-RMB too. In f...
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I have discovered that I have made a blunder in my valuation of Hongwei and Contel. That is, I did not take into account of their newly issu...
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Well, I guess I may have done it again. I may have succumbed to the falling market and my over-cautious mood last week. I have sold C&G,...
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Year % Returns STI (Excl Dividends) Remarks 2004 6% 2005 35% Returns/Declines boosted with slight leverage. 2008: Great Recession 2006 130...