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Some thooughts on Investing

Tactical Trades

I found myself doing 2 tactical trades lately. I define tactical trades as positions expected to be sold in around 6 months.

The first trade is Singtel, bought at $3.36 and sold at $3.53 yesterday. The second is Valutronics, bought at $0.69. I am hoping to dispose of it at $0.9, if possible.

Both trades are smallish position, unfortunately. I do not have the conviction to buy more, as I do not know if they may drop further at time of purchase.

Variant Perception

Variant Perception, if not wrong, is coined by Michael Steinhardt in his interview many years ago. The idea is to have different thoughts about a stock compared to the general market and hence profit from it.

The above 2 trades seems to illustrate variant percenption somewhat, as at the point when I purchase the stock, I was thinking that the stock price is too low and its outlook may be more favourable than what the market thoughts. Of course, I may be wrong and hence I keep the 2 trades small.

Earning Dividend …

Quick Update

Some quick thoughts

Valutronics dropped 17% today from 0.90 to 0.74. Wow. Not sure why it dropped so much. I do not have guts to catch such dropping knife, as I am not sure if there is any fundamental reasons behind the drop

Recently, I think I am quite enthusiastic on Reits. Not sure why.

Sold down ESR-Reit quite a bit due to the unexpected low DPU.

Have been buying Ascendas Hospitality Reit, as it is trading below NAV and has potential of increasing DPU after its Australia residence is developed in 2019.

Also, sold down 500 DBS shares at $29.64. Left 1,000 shares. May sell another 500 share at around $30.50.

Added more Bank of China (BOC). I have stocks on BOC, ABC and CCB. I have more ABC and CCB. So as I want more exposure to China Banks, I added to my BOC position.

Tech crash!? Does not really affect me, as I do not own any tech stocks as it seems.

First Ship Lease Trust, Own it two to three years ago, but sold to cut loss thereafter. Was thinking that it could be a good asset pl…

Mid-1Q2018 Update

It is interesting that Jan 2018 saw strong returns and the first 2 weeks of Feb gave back the returns. 

Similarly, my portfolio saw 8% returns in Jan before giving all of them back in Feb. Such is the life of an equity invester. 

Sold Postions

- Cogent: As mentioned in last post, I got my monies back after agreeing to sell my stake to Cosco

- DBS: I continue to pare down my stake at $25-$27. Now left with a quarter of my orginial holdings left

- a Malaysian stock: Sold to cut loss

- 800 Super: Sold after its disappointing latest quarter result. On hindsight, I should sell all my stake last year. 

Bought Positions

- China banks: Add to my position in China banks i.e. ABC, BOC and CCB. Now comprise 18% of my portfolio. Will stop adding and look forward to its dividend in middle of this year

- ESR Reit: Bought till it reaches 4% of my portfolio. ESR (reit manager) seems aggressive and may improve the reit's performance in the medium run.

- Hui Xian Reit: Adding on to my position. As noted in …

2017 Returns

Thoughts on 2017, Part 2

Everyone is positive on 2018's returns

I looked around at other people's view of 2018. Most, if not all, feel that 2018 will be a positive year but the returns will not be as good as 2017's. 

I also feel that 2018 should be positive for stocks. But I am more cautious when everyone feels the same way. Usually when everyone feels the same way, things will turn out different.

Hedging against errors in viewpoint

It is possible that my views may turn out to be wrong. E.g. I did not expect 2017 to be a such a good year for stocks. Hence, one may need to hedge against the possibility of having wrong viewpoints. 

For investors, hedging against wrong viewpoints can be done by 
- having margin of safety in buying stocks 
- having fixed stock-bond/cash allocation 
- selling half of stocks when stock rise 100%.
- diversification i.e. having more stocks in your portfolio. 

Re-learning my selling rules

This year, I have not abidded my selling rules faithfully. When bad news hit a stock, I should h…

Thoughts on 2017

2016 was a good year for investing; ditto for 2017 2017 is better

Yes, 2017 is a better year than 2016. STI is up by more than 20%, while my stock portfolio returns is around 30%. As the year is coming to an end, the returns should be more or less as it is now. At this point last year, I was expecting higher interest rate which will affect the stock market. Well, my prediction was off

Stock-to-Cash Proportion -- around 60% stock: 40% cash

I manage to roughly keep to 60% stock for most of the year, after using some cash to buy stocks at the start of year. Currently, my stock allocation is lower than 60%. I aim to pull it up to 60%, even though the market is not cheap. This could be tough, as I may have some stocks to sell.

Banks -- I like

10% of my stock portfolio is in DBS. At the middle of the year, I was aiming to sell DBS at $25. Now, DBS has reached around $25 and I have trimmed the position a little only

I feel that DBS (and other Singapore banks) may have some way to run, if interest …

China Banks, Trimming down Position

Stock Idea: China Banks

I have been buying China banks like China Construction Bank and Bank of China recently. In the currently slightly expensive market, China banks still have low PE and low P/B, notwithstanding doubts on their credit quality. I may continue to accumulate if their share price drop.

Trimming down positions

I have also been trimming down my positions in Aug - Sep:
- Sold a portion of 800 Super. After the sale, 800 Super is around 2% of my portfolio. 800 Super will start to operate the WTE plant at end 2017. Will wait to see how much the plant will help the bottomline.

- Sold my entire position in Soilbuild Reit after it announced its lease issue with NK Chemical. Soilbuild Reit's position is not large, around 2% of my portfolio. The sale carries a small profit as I bought the Soilbuild Reit at $0.66.

- Sold half of my stake in Ping An and 1/4 of my stake in CM Bank. The money from the sale are used to buy the China Banks

- Sold a smallish position in Nordic. Can&#…